The latest California population estimates show heavy shifts in House seats in the Democratic state, which is on pace to lose as many as five congressional districts in the 2030 reapportionment cycle if current trends persist.
Several projections using 2022 population estimates from the Census Bureau have estimated that California’s population could cause a trim to its delegation.
HOUSING STARTS FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2020 AS MORTGAGE RATES REMAIN HIGH
California is now predicted to lose 5 congressional districts in the 2030 reapportionment cycle. What happened to its historically fast growing population?
Get insight into California’s trends over the years: https://t.co/bZlgtG1YkO pic.twitter.com/gNyhisXlnp
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 19, 2023
For the first time in state history, California lost a congressional district in 2021 due to the population decrease. The state typically experienced population rises every year but has remained mostly flat since 2017.
Census Bureau data are used to determine how all 435 House seats are spread out throughout the nation, and a decrease in population caused the California House delegation to drop from 53 to 52 from 2020 data. Texas gained two seats, and Florida gained one.
The US Census Bureau released 2022 population estimates today. We can roughly project what the 2030 reapportionment will look like using linear extrapolation over the next eight years to determine population estimates for April 2030 and the apportionment formula to assign seats. pic.twitter.com/hCAB6KLQev
— Leon Sit (@politicsmaps) December 23, 2022
California’s population declined during the pandemic by 500,000 between April 2020 and July 2022, according to population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau released earlier this year.
A report from the California Department of Finance showed the state shrank by 138,000 people in 2022, a slightly smaller decline than the previous years.
The decline is commonly attributed to low birthrates, a decrease in immigration, high taxes, and crime.
The Golden State reached its lowest birthrate level in more than 100 years, according to a January report from the Public Policy Institute of California. The data show California reached a high in 1992 of 613,000 and sat at 420,000 in 2021.
Leaders in red states such as Florida have blamed California’s population decline on liberal policies. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has said California is “hemorrhaging wealth” in June, often taking jabs at Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) as talks of an exodus circulate.
“We’ve witnessed a great American exodus from states governed by leftist politicians imposing leftist ideology and delivering poor results, and you’ve seen massive gains in states like Florida,” DeSantis said in March during a speech in Simi Valley.
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Newsom has pushed back on Republican remarks, pointing to the fact that California has about 17 million more residents than Florida.
“Per capita, more Floridians move to California than Californians moving to Florida,” Newsom said in June.
