President Trump declared victory in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District on Tuesday night, as Republicans he endorsed won their primaries and possibly a critical special election.
The National Republican Congressional Committee claimed a win in Ohio’s 12th, too. “Congratulations to Congressman-Elect [Troy] Balderson on his hard-fought victory tonight,” said NRCC chairman Steve Stivers in a statement. “Nancy Pelosi and her liberal donors flooded this district with money and ads in an attempt to buy this seat. However, Troy’s focus never wavered from the issues central Ohioans care about like fighting opioids, creating jobs, and lowering taxes.”
So did the Republican National Committee. “Today, the voters of Ohio’s 12th District elected a true conservative committed to pro-growth policies that have already brought new jobs and economic confidence to the state under President Trump’s leadership,” said RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel. “Voters are tired of Democrats’ message of resist and obstruct, and [Democratic nominee] Danny O’Connor’s empty campaign rhetoric was no exception. With President Trump’s support that helped lead him to victory, Troy Balderson’s win tonight is another example of the so-called ‘blue wave’ being nothing but a ripple.”
The outside groups were similarly effusive. “America First Action congratulates Ohio State Senator Troy Balderson on his hard-won victory in today’s special primary election in Ohio,” said Erin Montgomery, communications director of the Trump-aligned super PAC. “There is no doubt that the President’s recent visit, along with the efforts of America First and our allies, rallied Republicans to victory tonight.”
[Trump: ‘Better numbers than Obama at this point’ means no ‘Blue Wave’ in 2018]
But no one was more jubilant — or confident — than Trump himself.
“When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good,” he tweeted. “After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov[ember].”
Trump also hailed John James, the GOP nominee for Senate from Michigan whom he had endorsed in the primary, as a “future STAR of the Republican Party” and predicted a win over Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., in November.
Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette also got a shout-out from Trump. He won his gubernatorial primary with the president’s backing, which portends a “Big win in November.”
“Lots of car and other companies moving back!” Trump tweeted.
As of Wednesday morning, Trump had yet to say anything about his preferred candidate for the Kansas governorship, Kris Kobach, who was leading in the GOP primary by a slim margin. If Kobach comes up short, it would be Trump’s first unsuccessful primary endorsement of 2018.
But a lot of good things did happen for Republicans on Tuesday night. Josh Hawley, a top Senate recruit, easily won his primary to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo. In the absence of Kid Rock, James probably is the best candidate to launch a longshot bid against Stabenow in Michigan. And it looks like the party will ever so barely hang onto their Ohio House seat despite a massive suburban vote for the Democrat.
Yet there was also some signs that Trump’s “red wave” talk is premature to say the least. There is now a clear pattern of Republican underperformance in special congressional elections dating back to 2017, even when GOP candidates ultimately win — Ohio 12 is not a district that should be close.
Suburban, college-educated voters are turning out against Trump and Republicans. This is especially true among women. It will eventually cost the party in districts where they cannot commit the kind of resources they can devote to a special election (although the Democrats will necessarily be spread thinner in November, too).
Rep. Cathy McMorris, R-Wash., posted unimpressive numbers against her top Democratic opponent in the state’s nonpartisan “jungle primary.” These results tend to be good predictors of the final November results and they suggest that the highest-ranking GOP woman in Congress could be in trouble.
Democrats nominated their strongest candidate for governor of Michigan. Despite Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s upset win in a safe New York district, the track record of risky progressives against safe establishment figures — if that narrative is even an accurate description of their respective electoral prospects — is decidedly mixed.
The networks haven’t called the Ohio race for Balderson yet, even if Republicans have. Even with a win, some warning signs are there.
