COMING HOME: President Trump is expected to announce as soon as this week that he will bring home about 4,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan, cutting the size of the U.S. force there by almost one-third.
The news of the intended drawdown of American troops was first reported over the weekend by NBC News, and confirmed by other media outlets.
STEALTH DRAWDOWN ALREADY UNDERWAY: Two months ago, on the occasion of Mark Esper’s first visit to Afghanistan as defense secretary, the top commander leading the U.S. and NATO missions revealed he has already been quietly reducing the footprint on the country.
“Just so you’re aware,” said Gen. Scott Miller as he stood beside Esper in Kabul Oct. 21, “as we work in Afghanistan with our partners, we’re always looking to optimize the force. And unbeknownst to the public, as part of our optimization over the last year … we’ve reduced our authorized strength by 2,000 here.”
That’s when we learned the 15,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan was now closer to 13,000. Another round of reductions would bring the number to between 8,000 and 9,000.
In September President Trump was prepared to order as many as 5,000 troops home as part of the deal with the Taliban to be signed at Camp David, which he scuttled after the Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack in Kabul that killed 12 people, including a U.S. soldier.
ROOM TO MANEUVER: Pentagon officials have been saying for months that while the U.S. needs to keep some troops in Afghanistan as part of the counterterrorism mission aimed at holding ISIS and al Qaeda at bay, the separate NATO train and assist “Resolute Support” mission could be safely drawn down.
Esper, in testimony last week at the House Armed Services Committee, confirmed he is comfortable with the troops cuts expected to be announced by Trump.
“We have an important counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan. That means that we got to make sure that Afghanistan never becomes again a safe haven for terrorists to strike the United States,” Esper said. “Our commanders I’ve spoken to … feel that we could reduce our force presence there and still be able to conduct that mission.”
After 18 years of war, Esper said it’s time to “reallocate” forces that have been battling terroroism to the Pentagon’s new priority of countering Russia and China. “I’m looking at everywhere we are in the world to include the Middle East to withdraw forces, draw down forces responsibly so that we could reallocate them toward great power conflict in Europe and principally in Asia,” Esper.
“The best way forward in Afghanistan is through a political agreement that allows us a long-term, sustainable path that ensures that the government in charge does not allow that safe haven to exist.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper is traveling in Belgium and Luxembourg to take part in ceremonies commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Battle of the Bulge. Called “the greatest American battle of the war” by Winston Churchill, it sealed the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.
“In frigid weather and against an onslaught of over 30 German divisions, American troops spread along 85 miles of the Ardennes Forest, thwarted Hitler’s last major offensive attack in the war,” said Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman. “Through fatigue and challenging conditions, American troops persevered and paved the way for the Allied victory.”
Esper is leading a U.S. delegation that includes House Speaker speaker Nancy Pelosi, and is scheduled to attend events at the Mardasson Memorial in Belgium and the American Military Cemetery in Luxembourg.
PALANTIR PENTAGON: The Pentagon announced Friday that Palantir USG Inc., of Palo Alto, California has been awarded an $110 million contract to knit together “numerous databases across the Army enterprise integrated on one platform.”
“The deal promises to significantly deepen the Silicon Valley-based analytics company’s ties to the Pentagon,” reported the Washington Post. “It is the second time in the past year that Palantir has won a front seat on a defense program of record, which has a dedicated line of funding from Congress”
The initial $110 million is part of a four-year, $440 million program called Vantage, formerly known as Army Leader Dashboard.
“Co-founded by Peter Thiel, a billionaire technology investor who has at times been an adviser to the Trump administration, Palantir has made its name serving the needs of the national security establishment,” The Post said. “For more than a decade, it has helped U.S. spy agencies make sense of the torrents of complex intelligence data they collect.”
TOP DIPLOMAT WARNS N. KOREA: U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun is in Seoul for meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and other South Korea officials.
In a news conference today, he warned North Korea against taking provocative actions after Pyongyang announced a series of tests of what appeared to be an engine for a long-range ICBM that could target the United States, and he rejected Kim Jong Un’s end of the year deadline for the U.S. to make new proposals.
“We are fully aware of the strong potential for North Korea to conduct major provocations in the days ahead. To say the least, such an action will be most unhelpful in achieving the lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula,” Biegun said, according to the South Korean news agency Yonhap.
“But it does not have to be this way. It is not yet too late. We and the North Koreans have in our hands the ability to choose a better path,” he added. “Let me be absolutely clear. The U.S. does not have a deadline. We have a goal to fulfill the commitments the two leaders made during their historic summit meeting in Singapore,” he said referring to the meeting between Trump and Kim in June of 2018.
NOTHING ‘ALL THAT REVELATORY”: Former Defense Secretary retired Gen. Jim Mattis says he’s not sure why people are surprised by the so-called “Afghanistan Papers” published last week by the Washington Post, a trove of more than 2,000 documents that showed many officials charged with prosecuting the Afghanistan War harbored deep reservations about the prospects for success.
In a Washington Post Live forum Friday, Mattis said the truth about the enormous challenges was in plain sight for anyone who was paying attention. “I have a hard time seeing it as all that revelatory,” Mattis told Post columnist David Ignatius. “The idea that there was any kind of an effort to hide this perplexes me.”
“The difficulty of Afghanistan was well understood very early on. There was nothing to build on there. There were no institutions. The population was not educated,” Mattis said.
Mattis argued there has been “undeniable progress” in Afghanistan in areas of education and public health, and he praised the Afghan forces for not giving up in the fight against the Taliban.
“I believe the casualties of that army are somewhere around 28,500 dead since 2015 and it’s still in the fight. That would break many armies. Those casualties would have destroyed the will to fight. And they’re still fighting today,” he said.
MATTIS ON TRUMP’S PARDONS: In that discussion Friday, Mattis said he did not believe that President Trump intervention in three cases where U.S. service members were accused or convicted of war crimes would have any lasting impact on maintaining “good order and discipline” in the ranks.
“This one time, I don’t think there’s any big impact on good order and discipline. One time it won’t do that. The institution is so strong, the culture is so strong in the military of good order and discipline that it will hold,” Mattis said. “Now if this sort situation was to arise again, you might change your assessment of what the implications are.”
“We need a very well disciplined military … in these kinds of wars, especially every battlefield is also a humanitarian field,” Mattis said. “The troops are imbued with this and the ethics of the troops I think will hold fast.”
IT’S COMPLICATED: At a forum at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York Friday, Secretary Esper was also asked about the president’s pardon and the message it sends to the troops.
“The president has authorities as commander in chief. President Obama has exercised, many presidents have exercised the power to pardon and commute,” Esper said.
“I am a strong believer in a uniform code of military justice, and I think the system should be allowed to play itself out, but these cases are all different and they all need to be looked at,” he added. “So these things are complicated. My job is to continue sending the message out there that ethics matter, even in combat, and that we have a professional standard that we need to uphold and I will continue to say that to the field.”
The Rundown
New York Times: U.S. Secretly Expelled Chinese Officials Suspected of Spying After Breach of Military Base
Reuters: China Lodges Stern Representations With U.S. Over Expelling Chinese Officials
Forbes: The Chinese Navy Is Building An Incredible Number Of Warships
Fox News: Navy Pilots Demand More Be Armed On Bases In Letter To Lawmakers And Military Brass
CNN.com: What Could North Korea’s ‘Christmas Gift’ To The U.S. Be?
Military Times: Pentagon’s Top Personnel Official Retires
Air Force Magazine: Donovan Tapped to be Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness
Military Times: Pentagon Eyes Big Expansion Of Foreign Military Training Program
Defense One: Ukraine Would Get New Anti-Ship Missiles Under House Bill
Seapower Magazine: Scientists Warn U.S. Running Out of Time to Modernize Nuclear Weapons Systems
AP: Horse-trading Iran hawks seize on Pompeo’s Senate interest
Bloomberg: Army’s Secret Flights Over Washington Now an ‘Enduring’ Mission
Air Force Magazine: Draft NDAA Saves Recon Planes From Retirement—For Now
CNN.com: Army and Navy launch internal investigations into controversial hand gesture captured on video
Washington Post: The Navy made Harvey Milk resign for being gay. Now they’re going to name a ship after him.
AP: A tattoo at a time, Afghan woman takes on society’s taboos
Calendar
MONDAY | DECEMBER 16
2:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. N.W. — Center for a New American Security discussion “U.S. Sanctions and Deterrence,” with former CIA Deputy Director David Cohen; Susanna Blume, defense program director at CNAS; Elizabeth Rosenberg, senior program director at CNAS; Eric Lorber, director of the Financial Integrity Network; and Jordan Tama, associate professor at American University https://www.cnas.org/events
3 p.m. 901 17th St. N.W. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial book discussion on The Longest Winter: The Battle of the Bulge and the Epic Story of World War II’s Most Decorated Platoon, with author Alex Kershaw and including a discussion with World War II veterans who participated in the battle. https://wwiimemorialfriends.networkforgood.com/events
4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on “America’s Longest War: The State of Affairs in Afghanistan,” with Laurel Miller, director of the International Crisis Group’s Asia Program; Tom Bowman, Pentagon reporter at National Public Radio; Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings; and Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
TUESDAY | DECEMBER 17
12 p.m. 740 15th St. N.W. — New America book discussion on “Trump and His Generals: The Cost of Chaos,” with author Peter Bergen, vice president of global studies at New America; and Sharon Burke, senior adviser in the New America International Security Program. https://www.newamerica.org
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 18
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave, N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion with retired Air Force Gen. Lori Robinson, former commander of USNORTHCOM, on current national security challenges and the need for diverse public servants in meeting them, with Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 19
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on “The future of Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream: The impact of sanctions legislation,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst; former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Morningstar; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Someone who is steeped in history and is a good listener and understands how you build a sense of common cause, you can build teams and bring people together. You’ve gotta be able to listen. You’ve got to be informed enough that you know what questions to ask, that history can give you, to ask about similar situations.”
Former Defense Secretary retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, asked what Americans should look for in a leader.
